Hurricanes are on a Decrease — And That’s the Problem
It is evident that hurricanes cause tremendous damage. For starters, the Balance concluded, “Over one-third of its [America’s] gross domestic product is from states along the Gulf and Atlantic coastline.” And, hurricanes cause increases in unemployment rates and depressions in the stock market. For example, in 2005, Hurricane Katrina damaged 19% of the oil production in the United States. Even though it was only a CAT level 3 cyclone when it hit land, about 125 billion dollars were spent in repair, and 15 million people were affected.
Out of the 20 most destructive hurricanes in history, 17 of them have occurred since 2000. But why have hurricanes become more destructive now?
Hurricanes in the Future
Global warming is what you’d expect considering all the things it has caused. But global warming has a weak correlation to the surge of hurricanes. Their increasing trait is most of what is in common. So the factor behind the recent spike in storms, for a definite, remains unknown.
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated the annual hurricane damage costs at 28 billion dollars. And in 2075, the annual cost is expected to increase to 39 billion dollars — the federal government paying for 60%. But the economy won’t be able to keep up.
“…the costs associated with hurricane damage will increase more rapidly than the economy will grow.”
— Congressional Budget Office
A critical observation was missed. This spike in activity has happened before because hurricanes follow a positive sine function pattern; the impending trend being a striking downfall once again.
Hurricanes have been sharply increasing and decreasing as far back as research can tell (150+ years). The reason we haven’t noticed before is that the topic loses speed in the news during the decreasing periods. But even with these decreases, the overall slope of the sine functions are all positive. So when the discussion of an increase in hurricanes is brought up, it is true to some extent, but not nearly at the rate we were all predicting.
When thought about linearly, this results in only 1°C raising a season of Accumulated Cyclone Energy by 1 which increases the numbers of Named Storms by 0.2 for every 5.2 years. In reaction to this, the average person would be wiping the sweat from their brow because this increase in storms seems very meek.
But this is a temporary decrease. When the numbers spike again, they will be worse than what we have faced these past decades. A decreased A.C.E. of 78 (this is just under the strength of Hurricane Katrina) over 31 years is only temporary. The A.C.E. will then increase by 91 for the following 32 years.
Our Greatest Weakness
And even with this in mind, we remain unfazed. Does the time it takes for destruction to arrive make the difference? Yes, because the wavelength of each function is around 60 years. And because the answer to surviving hurricanes is not very obvious, we end up finding a way to push the issue onto the next generation.
This is due to procrastination. From working on an essential project to organizing your inbox, tomorrow always seems like a better day to finish the task. And global warming? There have been many excuses. ‘Plenty of people are trying to solve that problem.’ ‘I won’t live to see that day.’ ‘The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.’
As easy as it would be to say, ‘Just do it,’ procrastination is not the only reason why we have been slow to act. According to the New York Times, “Most people think that climate change will harm Americans, but they don’t think it will happen to them.” The impending decrease in hurricanes makes them as misleading. We won’t be able to fully encapsulate what damage we could avoid if we act now until the disaster hits us.
“We are the first generation to feel the effect of climate change and the last that can do something about it.”
The message here is simply stating that we need to act. After 30 years, just 68% of the world believes in global warming’s existence. If that were to reflect on hurricanes as well, the 30 year period into the future begins another rapid increase in hurricanes — along with their strengths. There won’t be enough time to do something about it.
With the energy of 10,000 nuclear bombs, and set to increase, hurricanes are powerful and misleading — just like global warming.
Want more? Read a more in-depth representation of this article in the study, What Will be Global Warming’s Effect on Hurricanes in the Future.
